Es ist der Brief einer Weltwirtschaftsforschungs-Kollegin Wolfram Elsners, über die er einleitend schreibt:
Ich bin seit dem Beginn der russischen Intervention in der Ukraine auch in einem persönlichen Austausch mit meiner langjährigen Kollegin an der Russischen Akademie der Wissenschaften über das tägliche Leben dort. Sie ist sehr religiös, international orientiert, hat mit mir seit 20 Jahren (ich seit 35!) die größten US-Ökonomen-Konferenzen besucht, engagiert sich wie ich dort in den internationalen US-Fach-Associations … und ist mit einem Engländer verheiratet. Sie pendeln zwischen Moskau und Newcastle. Deshalb ist es besonders interessant, was sie wahrnimmt …
My dear Wolfram,
I am sending you my feelings and comments in an attached file. Colin is working on his comment independently and we will send it to you later.
Hope you are doing well. We will celebrate our Orthodox Easter on the 24 of April.
I wish you nice weekend, our dearest friend!
Svetlana
(meine Hervorhebungen und Ergänzungen in blau):
Dear Wolfram.
When on February 24 we heard the announcement of the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, it came as a shock to me and, I think, to many citizens of our country.
Why shock? Because, on the one hand, I knew from the daily news programs, of course, that Ukraine has been shelling the settlements of the unrecognized republics of Donbass, where the Russian-speaking population lives, for 8 years. There was also constant information about what was happening in Ukraine itself. So, we were aware of how the Maidan revolution of 2014 took place, how people were burned in Odessa in the House of Trade Unions, and about other atrocities. Then there were footages of Nazi torchlight processions in Kyiv as well as information about the renaming of streets in honor of Bandera and Shukhevych (Ukrainians who served in the SS during the Second Word war war) in Kyiv and throughout Ukraine. We were also showed on TV footages when, after the Maidan “revolution of dignity”, during the lustration (that is, the fight against those who served in government before the “revolution”), people on the streets stuffed such former deputies and officials into garbage cans or undressed them and forced them to walk along street in one underwear. There was a lot in Ukraine that was difficult to accept and did not want to think about it – it seemed so absurd and wild. I’m not talking about the frenzied Russophobia and the abolition of the Russian language as an official language in a country where more than half of the population speaks it!
Getötete Kinder im Donbass: „Straße der Engel“ in Donezk
But, on the other hand, the Minsk agreements were officially in force (hier liegt sie wohl falsch), in 2019 Zelensky won the presidential election thanks to the support of the eastern regions, as he promised to “end the war” and bring peace to the Donbass. Therefore, I, like, probably, many in Russia, had expectations that sooner or later the situation in Ukraine would be resolved successfully. We can say that the public consciousness got used to what is happening there, although people, of course, were humanly indignant at the fact that in Ukraine, instead of negotiations with the Donbass, they preferred to shoot, killing children as well. (Now we know that in Donetsk there is even an “Alley of Angels” with the graves of murdered children – see photo below).
That is, we seemed to know what was happening in Ukraine and the Donbass, but we got used to it (despite the fact that there were voices in Russia that Russia “it’s time to seriously intervene”). Because of this habit, the decision to launch a military operation on February 24 was unexpected and, of course, alarming. And when the first losses in the military force of Russia were made public (by the beginning of March it was almost one and a half thousand people), it became really scary, for example, I was scared to tears. I remember how in the first days of the military operation I could not concentrate on work, there were many incomprehensible things, and we were all “glued” to different sources of information about the military operation and its consequences. At the same time, the financial, economic and cultural sanctions of Western countries against our country began, which increased the feeling of uncertainty and, accordingly, anxiety.
On March 10, my scheduled vacation began, and Colin and I left for the UK. During my vacation, I spent hours looking through various sources of information – from Russia (official channels and beyond), Ukraine (including interviews by Vladimir Zelensky and Alexey Arestovich who is adviser to the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, BBC, CNN and Fox News, China (Global Times) and numerous bloggers from different countries in Russian and English.
After your letter with the proposal to write my opinion, I thought a lot and compared different data. Now I am ready to share with you some facts that may be of interest to you.
1) The attitude of the Russian population to the military operation.
The perception of the military operation by the population of Russia was ambiguous. You may know that some Russian celebrities even left the country in protest against the operation. My mother-in-law from the second marriage also does not accept the military operation. Therefore, we try not to talk about it with her in order to maintain good relations. Because my opinion is neither in support nor against this operation. I try to understand, not judge. What I noted is that there is an almost 100% correlation between the attitudes to the military operation and the attitude towards the current Russian president. Those who are “against Putin” are also against this “bloody” operation. Most of the population, however, do not condemn the operation. Among my relatives (we have created a network in WhatsApp, where we constantly exchange opinions), there is also a split, and along the same “line of demarcation” – whoever was against Putin is also against the military operation. But my relatives and I are trying to maintain unity and say that there were similar situations in the history of our family. For example, one brother of my father in the 1920s was for the whites, two were for the reds. All died on the fronts of the civil war. That is, political differences have always arisen. But the family, like the country, must be preserved. On May 9, we again gather with relatives at our home in honor of Victory Day. We continue this tradition after the death of my dad, who was a participant in the Great Patriotic War.
Die UNO-Antifaschismus-Resolution vom November 2020: Nur USA und Ukraine dagegen!
2) Against whom Russia is conducting a military operation.
Immediately after the start of the military operation, there were many explanations in the official media and on the Internet about the reasons for and the need for it, about why Ukraine should be denazified and demilitarized. However, with the growing sanctions pressure on Russia, people in our country are increasingly thinking that it is not so much about the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but about the confrontation between Russia and the “collective West”. And many say directly that this is a fight against the United States, which continues the line begun by sanctions since the days of the USSR (the same is said by the Chinese media, as I saw). The quintessence of this understanding can be the statement of one high-ranking Russian general that we do not have a Russian-Ukrainian border, but a Russian-American border. Various facts are presented to support this opinion. As we know (hier weiß das keiner!), on November 18, 2020, the 3rd Committee of the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on “Combating the glorification of Nazism, neo-Nazism and other practices that contribute to fueling contemporary forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance” (UN A/C.3/75/L.49). All UN members voted “for”, only the United States and Ukraine voted “against” (All members of NATO and the European Union absented). Or pay attention to the coin, which was recently released at the US White House on April 17, dedicated to Vladimir Zelensky.
Östliche vs. westliche Medien: Sachliche Sprache gegen Hetzsprache (wir hatten das in meinen Versendungen schon öfter. Mir war in China immer sofort dasselbe aufgefallen und man kann es täglich sehen, wenn man chinesische Medientexte liest: Sachlich, zurückhaltend, auf Lösungen, Frieden und Kooperation orientiert)
3) The dominant of the current perception of the military operation in Russia.
After almost two months of military operation in Russia, it is increasingly seen as a continuation of the fight against Nazism. Perhaps this is due to the official presentation of materials about this operation in our country. Although we in Russia understand that, as Otto von Bismarck said, “Es wird niemals so viel gelogen wie vor der Wahl, während des Krieges und nach der Jagd.” What Bismarck called lies are now called fakes, and there are enough of them, so the information must be evaluated very carefully. Maybe you will be interested in my comparison of information about the military operation in Russia, on the one hand, and Ukraine and Great Britain (from where we have just returned), on the other hand. The main differences are as follows. First, in Russia (compared to Ukraine and Great Britain), the presentation of information, as a rule, is mostly not emotional, biographical and with “expert assessments”, but more factual and analytical. We have far fewer videos and pictures of bloody victims and heartbreaking stories from witnesses (although we know they exist), but more information about the state of affairs, infrastructure, problems with water supply, the number of shots, the movement of military units, etc. We can say that our media appeal more to the people brains and common sense than to the emotions of the audience. Secondly, our presentation of information is more contextual. That is, it is not so much about specific facts (although about them too), but about the connection of this fact with others, for example, “in the geopolitical dimension of the current situation.” Therefore, it seems to me that the audience here has a broader picture in the historical and political context. For example, now the Ministry of Defense has published archives about the liberation of Mariupol in 1943 from the Nazi invaders https://mariupolliberation.mil.ru/. People can see a lot of similarities in what the Nazis who were sitting in Mariupol then and the fighters of the Azov battalion did now – in relation to the local population and the destruction of houses, etc. The fact that the continuity of this operation with the Great Patriotic War is being strengthened in the minds of the Russian population is manifested in the following, for example. For several years now, on May 9, we have been holding the Immortal Regiment campaign all over the country (I know that not only here, but also in many countries of the world – in 2018, Colin and I participated in this campaign in Israel in the city of Eilat, where we ended up on May 9). The Immortal Regiment is a procession of people with portraits of their relatives who died in the Great Patriotic War. This year, people are already talking about the fact that people will carry portraits of their relatives who died during a special military operation in Ukraine during this procession. That is, they are mentally equated with participators of the war of the USSR against fascism.
Eskalation der Raketeneinschläge in Donezk und Lugansk von den Asov-Regimentern kurz vor der russischen Intervention (OSZE-Statistik, hatte General Jacques Baud ja auch schon gebracht)
4) Military operation as a defense, not an attack.
In my opinion, the more time passes from the beginning of the operation, the more the public opinion is strengthened that the point of this operation is rather to protect Russia as a sovereign state and its values. The defense of the Donbass republics in this context is the defense of Russia from the threats of the collective West, which uses Ukraine either as a provocateur or as a “watch dog”. What is it connected with? Firstly, with the fact that there is more and more evidence that Ukraine was preparing for a war and, possibly, an attack on the republics of Donbass (with which Russia urgently signed the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance on February 22, 2022). Here is the graph “Number of explosions recorded in Donbass (February 14-22, 2022)” from the daily reports of the OSCE observers at: https://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/reports.
As we now know, the increasing in the number of artillery explosions testifies to the preparation for offensive operations. Ukraine’s preparations for war are also evidenced by the abundance of weapons that was revealed during the Russian military operation, when the prepared defensive-offensive systems became clear, the highest level of staffing of Ukrainian soldiers with everything necessary from the NATO countries. Arms deliveries, as we know, continue now. Secondly, in the Ukrainian press, I came across an accusation of the Ukrainian authorities by one of the Ukrainian generals. He was indignant at the fact that in mid-February there was an order to clear the exits to the Crimea from Ukraine. He wrote angrily that this facilitated the passage of Russian tanks into Ukraine from Crimea at the start of the Russian special military operation. But, I said to myself, since the demining initiative came from the Ukrainian side, is it more logical to assume that this was preparation for the movement of equipment to the Crimea from Ukraine? Although, of course, I’m not a military expert. Moreover, I understand that the interpretation of these data may be the opposite, that is, to support the position of Russia’s aggressive aspirations. But – I share facts that seemed interesting to me and which, perhaps, are unknown to you. And, of course, the fact that Russia has to defend itself, not attack, our public opinion is convinced by the sanctions that fell on Russia after February 24, which Western countries organise “at the request of Ukraine”. Interestingly, against this background, the Zelensky team, by their own admission, now feels like the leader of the free world. They openly say that they are young and strong, they must replace the “decrepit and weak political elites of Europe” and carry the torch of “freedom and democracy” (from an interview with Alexei Arestovich, adviser to President Zelensky, in Russian, YouTube channel Фейгин Life).
5) Russia and the West.
The special military operation showed that Western countries – politicians and the population – are actively supporting Ukraine. I saw it myself in the UK, where some residents even raise Ukrainian flags near their homes. I understand that they sympathise with a country that has been attacked by another country. However, it is difficult for me to judge how deeply they understand this situation. In Russia, those who are against the military operation consider such support for Ukraine by Europe as justification for the correctness of their position, like my mother-in-law. Those who are not an unequivocal opponent of the military operation are perplexed about the position of Europe. Why do European countries take sanctions against Russia that are dangerous for them, as we say, why are they ready to “shoot themselves in the foot”? (Meine Antwort war immer: Die Schock-Strategie, Naomi Klein; andere würden sagen: The Great Reset.) And in this regard, the question arises as to why they follow the United States so consistently? Here is a cartoon that shows it well.
We do not really believe that this is a “protection of Western values.” Anti-Americanists in our country generally say that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was provoked by the United States in order to weaken not only Russia, but also Europe. (Brzezinski! The Great Chessboard) Moreover, there are so many military bases in Europe that European countries can hardly be considered independent and sovereign. Anyway, for us in Russia, the break in relations with Europe is perceived with sadness. It looks like a new Iron Curtain. The first was announced in Fulton’s speech by Churchill in 1946. And here again Britain is at the head of the anti-Russian policy…. But we hope that sooner or later normal relations between the countries will improve.
6) Everyday life.
Daily life in material terms has not changed much. Shops are open, the range of goods is the same (perhaps for now?), the excitement of the first days after the start of the military operation has disappeared, and purchases for future use have stopped. We have the same rate Rbl to $ how it was before the operation. Of course, there have been changes in the information sphere. One of the state TV channels up to yesterday was called “information channel” , and the situation related to the military operation was discussed on it all day long – from reports “from the battlefield” to global changes in the world order caused by the current situation (now it became how it was before). Access to some foreign information channels (for example, to the BBC and Deutsche Welle) and Facebook is not possible. People use VPNs to watch blocked Russian media as well. But almost all channels and bloggers have moved to Telegram, so you can always find almost any information there. On March 4, 2022, a law was adopted on liability for the creation and distribution of fakes related to the conduct of a special military operation, etc. It provides for penalties ranging from fines to criminal liability. Some mass media (including those declared to be foreign agents) in connection with this decided to temporarily (for the period of the military operation) suspend their work so as not to risk it. Also, you might be interested: the latest opinion polls show that Putin is supported by 80% of the country’s population. My mother-in-law, who does not support him, complains that she cannot but believe these data: she quarreled with almost all her girlfriends, because they are “for Putin.” The more time passes, the clearer it becomes that, in addition to the events in Ukraine, there are many other events in life. And at the same time, it is still difficult to get rid of the idea that the current situation is an important counterpoint in modern world history, and the further world development depends on its outcome.