| Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more China Was Responsible for 63% of New Clean Energy Capacity in 2024 Roger Boyd May 14      READ IN APP Yes, you read that headline correctly, nearly two thirds of all incremental new clean energy capacity last year was installed in China. In the first quarter of 2025 the country generated 951 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity from clean energy, representing 39% of electricity generation (wind 13%, solar 10%, hydro 9%, nuclear 5%). That’s an increase of 19% year-over-year, with the share of electricity rising from 34% in Q1 2024. Coal-fired electricity generation dropped 4%, with its share of generation falling from 63% to 58%. Gas-fired electricity generation fell 4%, to less than 3% of overall electricity generation. Even with China’s 5% GDP growth and electrification of transport that drives electricity usage growth, China’s clean energy is now expanding enough to more than offset the growth in electricity demand; resulting in a fall in the usage of fossil fuels. The difference in scale between the Chinese clean energy capacity and that of other nations/regions is startling, with China growing that capacity at a much faster rate: China: 1,827,270 MW; y-o-y growth of 25.7% Europe: 848,627 MW; y-o-y growth of 9.01% US: 428,405 MW; y-o-y growth of 11.21% India: 204,292 MW; y-o-y growth of 16.28% New Chinese wind capacity grew by 18.07%, far ahead of India (7.66%), Europe (4.53%) and the US (3.47%). New Chinese solar capacity grew by 45.58%, ahead of India (33.66%), the US (27.49%) and Europe (21.02%). It’s important to remember that the Chinese growth is from a base twice the size of Europe’s and three and a half times the size of the US with respect to wind energy. For solar, China’s base is more than twice the size of Europe’s and four times that of the US. It does look like China is planning to continue at this rate of growth in future years, while with the pro-fossil fuels Trump administration in power the US growth rate will most probably decelerate. The Chinese additions of new capacity are supplied from Chinese manufacturers, leading to an extremely rapid rate of growth in the Chinese wind, solar and nuclear industries. Together with the required provision of high voltage and smart grid capacity. Such rapid capacity growth drives both decreased costs and extremely high levels of technological development; far outstripping manufacturers in other nations. All aided of course by the colossal numbers of new Chinese STEM graduates each year. If Chinese electricity generation continues to be decarbonized at a rate of 5% per year, then by the start of 2030 clean energy generation will represent 64% (39% plus 25%) of overall generation; with fossil fuels at only 36%. The sheer speed of this turnaround will be stunning, as China will become a model for the decarbonization of electricity generation. By 2035, with the implementation of cross-regional electricity lines, much greater implementation of electricity storage technologies, and residential solar and storage, China may be able to achieve a a near total usage of clean energy within its electricity generation sector. This will be heavily reliant upon the ability of cross regional flows, hydro-electricity, storage technologies, nuclear, and residential solar and storage (including EV battery capacity) to balance out regional fluctuations in wind and solar generation. In 2024 electricity consumption accounted for 38% of China’s overall energy usage, and that will continue to climb as electricity displaces fossil fuels in transportation and other areas. China has a huge global lead in the electrification of public mass transit, light vehicles, and even heavy trucks. The country has been making strides in reducing the energy intensity of GDP, but that progress has stalled in the past few years; it only fell 2% between 2020 and 2023. The Party-state increased the goal for 2024 to 2.5% to help meet its target of a 13.5% reduction between 2021 and 2025. As the need for action on climate change becomes more and more imperative, China will be the most well positioned country to gain from such actions. It will be the global low cost provider of clean energy, modern electricity grids, and electrified transport. Ironically, it could also become a major exporter of coal as its own consumption rapidly falls. In addition, its demand for imported oil would be significantly reduced. In contrast to the Western complaints of China building “over-capacity” it is in fact building the capacity that the nations of the world will desperately need to decarbonize their economies. Perhaps the greatest benefit may be China’s ability to help the industrializing nations to meet their growing energy needs from clean energy electricity and not from fossil fuels. Postscript: By the end of March 2025, China’s installed capacity of wind and solar alone had grown to 1,482 GW. An amount greater than the installed capacity of fossil fuel electricity power generating units, although of course the fossil fuel generating units have a much higher level of capacity utilization. Still, that’s an addition of 72 GW in just 3 months – pointing to continued rapid growth in China’s wind and solar capacity this year. By the end of 2025, China is expected to have 1,720 GW of wind and solar capacity which will be a 22% increase over 2024; exceeding China’s official 2030 wind and solar capacity target. Geopolitics And Climate Change is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Geopolitics And Climate Change that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won’t be charged unless they enable payments. Pledge your support Like Comment Restack © 2025 Roger Boyd
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